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| An unlikely but possible outcome of activity at the summit of Kīlauea would be a pyroclastic surge. Such surges are fast-moving, hot clouds of volcanic gases, and fragments of magma and older rocks. They form when eruption columns become unstable and collapse back around the vent. Surges typically travel around 22 miles per hour but can move as rapidly as 200 – 700 mph. Surges occurred at Kīlauea during and before 1790 and extended three miles out from the crater as shown by the dashed white circle. It indicates the approximate boundary of a possible, but unlikely surge. Figure 5 map from USGS with background imagery from Google Earth |
Mayor Harry Kim, County Civil Defense chief Talmadge Magno and state Rep. Richard Onishi also attended. Hawaiian Volcanoes Observatory Chief Scientist Tina Neal presented the evaluation along with scientists Jim Swanson and Lyle Anderson.
See more on the Civil Defense presentation and recommendations in Saturday's Ka‘ū News Briefs.
She said that HVO predicts continued caving-in of walls and subsidence of Kīlaeua Caldera and widening of Halemaʻumaʻu Crater, where the lava lake is gone and lava storage chambers have lost much of their content which moved into lower Puna, where lava flows into the ocean.
A document from the scientists says that they expect the events at Halemaʻumaʻu "to continue for as long as magma is withdrawn from the summit reservoir(s) at a rate exceeding the rate of magma supply, but the rate, style, and geographical extent of the subsidence – along with associated hazards – may vary. The USGS staff presented likely scenarios under the condition of continued net magma withdrawal.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: USGS predicted that the most likely outcome for the next two months is "continued subsidence of Kīlauea Caldera, episodic slumping into a widening Halemaʻumaʻu crater, felt earthquakes (some large enough to be damaging), and small to intermediate ash plumes that remain below 10,000 feet above sea level. As the reservoir deflates, cracking and slumping is gradually engulfing a broader extent of Kīlauea Caldera (as observed in high rates of ground deformation and propagating cracks around Halemaʻumaʻu ); this process will likely continue to enlarge Halemaʻumaʻu and may involve larger slump blocks than previously. This activity is impressive in scale — and may ultimately involve much or even all of the current Kīlauea Caldera — but it need not necessarily involve new or more hazardous explosive activity.
"Hazardous explosive activity cannot be ruled out, however. It is possible that a large section of the Halemaʻumaʻu wall could abruptly collapse into the crater. Because a broad region E and NE of Halemaʻumaʻu is currently deforming, it is difficult to predict how large such a collapse might be or its impact on the explosion hazard. Most likely, such an event would generate only strong seismic shaking and a robust ash plume.
"Should activity continue as described, primary hazards of concern are:
– Damaging earthquakes (potentially exceeding equivalent M5).
– Ash plumes, ashfall (associated with CE events and large rockfalls)
– Large and sudden collapses into the expanding Halemaʻumaʻu crater
– Ground cracking and continued rockfall activity along steep caldera walls
– Vog (although sulfur dioxide output is approaching low pre-2008 levels)
LESS LIKELY OUTCOMES: USGS predicted less likely outcomes for the next two months.
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| Halemaʻumaʻu, just after the July 5 collapse event. USGS photo |
"Hazardous explosive activity cannot be ruled out, however. It is possible that a large section of the Halemaʻumaʻu wall could abruptly collapse into the crater. Because a broad region E and NE of Halemaʻumaʻu is currently deforming, it is difficult to predict how large such a collapse might be or its impact on the explosion hazard. Most likely, such an event would generate only strong seismic shaking and a robust ash plume.
"Should activity continue as described, primary hazards of concern are:
– Damaging earthquakes (potentially exceeding equivalent M5).
– Ash plumes, ashfall (associated with CE events and large rockfalls)
– Large and sudden collapses into the expanding Halemaʻumaʻu crater
– Ground cracking and continued rockfall activity along steep caldera walls
– Vog (although sulfur dioxide output is approaching low pre-2008 levels)
LESS LIKELY OUTCOMES: USGS predicted less likely outcomes for the next two months.
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| Rock slides into Kīlauea after the July 5 collapse event. USGS photo |
USGS presented two less likely possibilities: "more hazardous explosions occurring during ongoing subsidence and enlargement of Halema`uma`u," and "a sudden collapse of the larger caldera system." The scientists said the scenarios "may not include all possible future outcomes and hazards."
A larger explosion during ongoing subsidence in and around Halemaʻumaʻu. If this unlikely (perhaps 1 percent) option were to occur, USGS predicted, "activity could become more hazardous over short time scales. This could be triggered in one of several ways, including a rapid pressure change or other perturbation of the reservoir; opening of new pathways between the reservoir and the surface; or the interaction of magma with groundwater. Rapid pressure change could be caused by a large, sudden landslide from the crater’s steep, faulted rim; alternatively, sudden larger-scale collapse of rock into the reservoir could perturb reservoir pressure above levels seen during previous collapse eruption events. New pathways could be formed by explosive ejection of rubble in the vent or downward propagation of cracks.
"Groundwater could enter the magmatic system at sufficient rates to produce steam-driven explosive eruptions. Some of these mechanisms could be preceded by detectable changes in monitoring data, but others could happen with no warning. If larger explosions do occur, their style and magnitude cannot be predicted; it is possible that they could produce more ballistics and ash, and possibly also pyroclastic surges.
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| The WorldView-3 satellite acquired this view of Kīlauea's summit on July 3. Despite a few clouds, the area of heaviest fractures in the caldera is clear. Views into the expanding Halema‘uma‘u crater reveal a pit floored by rubble. HVO, on the northwest caldera rim, is labeled. Photo from USGS |
The USGS scientists said that Volcano area residents should be prepared for strong seismic shaking as well as ground cracks in the vicinity of the caldera. Hawai`i County Civil Defense asks residents to be ready with a plan, should a more dangerous situation arise.
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| Halemaʻumaʻu Crater's summit eruptive vent expanded in May, then began to collapse in June. As of July 4, the collapse, caused by the evacuation of magma from the reservoir, had widened Halemaʻumaʻu Crater and impacted the larger Kīlauea Caldera. Images from USGS |
"Pyroclastic surges and density currents are highly destructive, generally fast-moving clouds of volcanic gases and fragments of magma and older rocks. They are generally hot and form when eruption columns become unstable and collapse back around the vent. Surges typically travel tens of meters per second (22 mph), but certain types can move as rapidly as 100 – 300 meters per second (200 – 700 mph).
"Surges usually extend radially from the vent in all directions, but can be influenced by topography, thickening in valleys and thinning over topographic highs. Due to their great heat and high speed, pyroclastic surges are among the most dangerous and destructive of volcanic hazards. There are very few survivors among those caught in the path of a hot surge, and property damage is severe. In the past, surges have been produced at Kīlauea by sustained eruption columns. For example, pyroclastic surges were produced at Kīlauea between the middle 1500s and A.D. 1790.
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| This chart shows the increase of seismic frequency from June 10 through June 27. USGS figure |
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HAWAIʻI ELECTRIC LIGHT COMPANY CONSTRUCTION IN VOLCANO VILLAGE begins July 9, through September 30, weather permitting, says an a nnouncement from the utility. Work will be performed in phases along
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Crews will
replace 1.25 miles of overhead transmission lines “to improve system
reliability,” says the announcement. Work will include hole digging, tree trimming,
pole removal, and pole installation. Hole digging operations will begin on July
9. Some of the work will require partial lane closures with delays of up to 10
minutes. Traffic control will be provided and motorists are advised to drive
with caution in the work zone. “For the safety of our crews, temporary power
interruptions may be necessary. Advance notification will be provided to area
residents. We regret any disruption this construction could cause and thank you
for your patience and understanding. If you have any questions or concerns,
please call 969-6666.”
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A PUBLIC LANDS BILL was signed into law in
Public Lands – Hilo Community Economic District: defines the Hilo community economic district. It authorizes the Hawaiʻi Board of Land & Natural Resources to extend, modify, or eliminate certain public land leases in the district. It establishes a separate request for interest process to public lands in the economic district, and requires qualified bidders to deposit an amount equal to one per cent of the value of the leasehold improvements.
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| Image from Gov. David Ige's Facebook |
BILLS SIGNED INTO LAW by Gov. David Ige today, July 6, at the Hawaiʻi
State Capitol Auditorium, include:
Unlicensed Care Homes: Authorizes the Department of Health to investigate care facilities reported to be operating without an appropriate certificate or license issued by the Department. Establishes penalties for violations and for knowingly referring or transferring patients to uncertified or unlicensed care facilities, with certain exceptions. Excludes landlords from licensure, under certain conditions.
Ige posted to Facebook: “We have seen more and more of these unlicensed care homes popping up across the state, and we just want to be sure that we have the ability to inspect these homes, determine whether they’re licensed, enforce the law and ensure the safety and care of patients.”
Ige posted to Facebook: “We have seen more and more of these unlicensed care homes popping up across the state, and we just want to be sure that we have the ability to inspect these homes, determine whether they’re licensed, enforce the law and ensure the safety and care of patients.”
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| Image from Gov. David Ige's Facebook |
Protections for Healthcare Workers: Makes
intentionally or knowingly causing bodily injury to certain health care workers
a Class C felony. Ige posted to Facebook: “We’re
see increasing violence against healthcare workers who experience violent
assaults at a rate that is four times higher than the national average. This
new law aims to provide our healthcare workers with greater protection.”
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HOURS CHANGE FOR THE DISASTER RECOVERY CENTER starting tomorrow, Saturday, July 7. Jointly operated by Hawaiʻi County, the State of Hawaiʻi , and FEMA, the center is open daily, from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. weekdays, and 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. weekends, at Keaʻau High School Gym. Buses will still run to and from Keaʻau Armory every 20 minutes, and Pāhoa Community Center Shelter every hour. See the full bus schedule on the Civil Defense Website at HawaiiCounty.gov/Active-Alerts. For a list of the information applicants need to bring to the DRC, or to register online, go to DisasterAssistance.gov.
NEW and UPCOMING
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| Io Flying Over The Park by John Dawson. Photo from volcanoartcenter.org |
Birds Of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park: The Hawaiʻi Nei Invitational Exhibition, is open daily, from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., July 13 through Aug. 4. It features art by John Dawson, Reyn Ojiri, Sarah Koh, Wendy Barske, Maria Macias, Cody Yamaguchi, Ann Guth, and John Mydoock. The selected artists were asked to represent endemic bird species found in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.
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| Iʻiwi III by Reyn Ojiri. Photo from volcanoartcenter.org |
Quilts In The Forest - Where the Path May Lead, Volcano Art Center’s second annual bi-annual quilt show, open Tuesday through Saturday, from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., July 13 through Aug. 3. It features the art of local quilters as they “explore new and innovative ways in quilting,” says the event description. Workshops and demonstrations are planned in conjunction with the show. For more, contact Fia Mattice, 967-8222, or quiltshow2018@volcanoartcenter.org.
Both exhibits and the opening reception are free to the public.
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SATURDAY, JULY 7
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| Rodeo fans head to the arena tomorrow and Sunday in Na`alehu. Photo by Gabe Cuevas |
wildhawaii.org
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| See public Ka‘ū events, meetings, entertainment.
Print edition of The Ka‘ū Calendar is free to 5,500 mailboxes
throughout Ka‘ū, from Miloli‘i through Volcano, and free on
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Art in the Everyday Community Quilt Project - Assembly Workshop, Sat, July 7, 10-4pm , Volcano Art Center Volcano Village Rogers hopes to construct monumental sculptural quilt built of round wood 5” pieces - each blank and designed by community participants. Pick up blank piece and packet at Volcano Art Center Wailoa Art Center
SUNDAY, JULY 8
‘Ōhi‘a Lehua, Sun, July 8, 9:30-11am, Kahuku Unit of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park. Learn about vital role of ‘ōhi‘a lehua in native Hawaiian forests, and many forms of ‘ōhi‘a tree and its flower, on this free, easy, one-mile walk. nps.gov/HAVO
MONDAY, JULY 9
State Rep. Richard Creagan Talk Story, Mon, July 9, 6-9pm, Ocean View Community Center. Representing, West Ka‘ū and District 5, Creagan is a Ka‘ū resident, farmer, and a physician. 939-7033
TUESDAY, JULY 10
Hawai‘i County Council Meetings, Tue/Wed, July 10(Committees)/11 (Council), Hilo , Tue/Wed, July 24 (Committees)/25 (Council), Kona. Ka‘ū residents can participate via videoconferencing at Nā‘ālehu State Office Building
C.E.R.T. Discovery Harbour/Nā‘ālehu, Tue, July 10, 4-6pm , Discovery Harbour Community Hall. Public invited to see what Community Emergency Response Team is about, and participate in training scenarios. Dina Shisler, dinashisler24@yahoo.com, 410-935-8087
The Wonderful World of Wine and Watercolor, Tue, July 10, 4-7pm , Volcano Art Center Volcano Village
Story Time with Auntie Linda from Tūtū and Me, Thu, July 12, 10:30 -noon , Nā‘ālehu Public Library. 929-8571
Thursday Night at the Center - Witnesses in Words: The Literature of Kīlauea, Thu, July 12, 7-8pm , Volcano Art Center Volcano Village Kīlauea and their perspectives: William Ellis, Titus Coan, Mark Twain and Isabella Bird. Free; $5 donation suggested. 967-8222, volcanoartcenter.org
Oliver!, a KDEN Production, July 13-29; Fridays and Saturdays, 7:30pm , Sundays 2:30pm . Shows moved to UH Hilo Performing Arts Center. Tickets: $20 general, $15 seniors 60+ and students, $12 keiki 12 and under. Tickets available from July 2 at Kīlauea General Store, Kea‘au Natural Foods, Basically Books, and The Most Irresistible Shop in Hilo . Info and reservations: 982-7344, kden73@aol.com
Exhibit, Birds of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park 9-5pm , Volcano Art Center Volcano Village
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ONGOING
5th annual Ka‘ū Coffee Trail Run registration open. Race day Sat, Sept 22, 7 a.m. ; begins and ends at Ka‘ū Coffee Mill. Register online before Mon, July 9: 5K, $25/person; 10K, $35/person; and 1/2 Marathon , $45/person. From July 9 to Aug 11: $30/person, $40/person, and $45/person, respectively. From Aug 13 to Sept 20: $35/person, $45/person, and $55/person. Race day registration ends Sat, Sept 22, at 6:30 a.m. Event organizers, ‘O Ka‘ū Kākou; start location, Ka‘ū Coffee Mill.
Libraries Rock Summer Reading Program: Hawai‘i State Public Library System, through Saturday, July 14, statewide and online. Register and log reading at librarieshawaii.beanstack.org or at a local library. Free. Reading rewards, activities, and programs for children, teens, and adults. 2018 participants have a chance to win a Roundtrip for four to anywhere Alaska Airlines flies.
Paid Intern sought by The Nature Conservancy, to work from October 2018 through August 2019 with their Hawai‘i Island Terrestrial Program, which has native forest preserves located in Ka‘ū and South Kona.
Applicants must be at least 17 years old by the program start date, October 2018, and possess or be working towards a high school diploma or equivalent. Applications must also have their own housing and transportation, a drivers license, and be able to pass a criminal history check.
The internship is offered through Kupu Hawai‘i. Those interested are asked to fill out an online application at kupuhawaii.org under Conservation Leaders Program as soon as possible, as spaces are limited; http://www.kupuhawaii.org/conservation/. For more, call The Nature Conservancy at 443-5401 or call Kupu Hawai‘i at 808-735-1221.
Disaster Recovery Center is open daily, from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. weekdays, and 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. weekends, at Keaʻau High School Gym. Buses run to and from the shelters; see the full bus schedule on the Civil Defense Website at HawaiiCounty.gov/Active-Alerts. For a list of the information applicants need to bring to the DRC, or to register online, go to DisasterAssistance.gov.
Find Your Park, invites Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. Kamaʻaina and tourist alike are encouraged to experience authentic Hawaiian cultural programs, guided hikes, After Dark events, and more from Ka‘ū to Volcano to Hilo. “While Kīlauea continues to shake the ground and blast ash from its ever-changing summit crater – causing the partial closure of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park 
Rangers offer new and familiar programs – free of charge, with no entry fees – for visitors at the park’s Kahuku Unit, Volcano Art Center’s Ni‘aulani Campus, the Mokupāpapa Discovery Center in Hilo, and at the Grand Naniloa Hotel in downtown Hilo.
Guided Hikes begin at 9:30 a.m. every Saturday and Sunday in June and July. Meet the ranger at the welcome tent. Palm Trail, Saturday, July 7 from 9:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Ōhi‘a Lehua, Sunday, July 8 from 9:30 a.m. to 11 a.m. Volcano Art Center Mokupāpapa Discovery Center 
Grand Naniloa Hotel
Libraries Rock Summer Reading Program: Hawai‘i State Public Library System, through Saturday, July 14, statewide and online. Register and log reading at librarieshawaii.beanstack.org or at a local library. Free. Reading rewards, activities, and programs for children, teens, and adults. 2018 participants have a chance to win a Roundtrip for four to anywhere Alaska Airlines flies.
Paid Intern sought by The Nature Conservancy, to work from October 2018 through August 2019 with their Hawai‘i Island Terrestrial Program, which has native forest preserves located in Ka‘ū and South Kona.
Benefits offered include: a $1,600 monthly living allowance (before taxes); a $5,920 education award towards higher education; health care and childcare benefits (if eligible); and receive an entry-level conservation career experience.
Kahuku Unit
In addition to regularly scheduled Guided Hikes and the monthly Coffee Talk, Kahuku Unit has added daily Ranger Talks, and cultural demonstrations and activities on weekends.
Visitor Contact Station hosts Ike Hana Noe ʻAu, Cultural Demonstrations and Activities, from 12:30 to 1:30 p.m. every Saturday and Sunday, made possible by Hawaiʻi Pacific Parks Association. Sat, July 7: Lau Hala Weaving. One of the most beautiful Hawaiian fiber crafts, the leaves of the hau tree (pandanus) are woven into useful and decorative purposes. Sun, July 8: ‘Ohe Kāpala. Make your mark, and learn to create bamboo stamps with traditional and modern Hawaiian designs.
Visitor Contact Station hosts Ranger Talks on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday at 10:30 a.m. and 1 p.m. ; Saturday and Sunday at 10:30 a.m.
Guided Hikes begin at
Coffee Talk, in the Visitor Contact Station is held the last Friday of the month, 9:30-11 a.m.
Kahuku events are posted to the park website, nps.gov/havo/planyourvisit/kahuku-hikes.htm.
You can also find your park rangers in Volcano at the Volcano Art Center 19-4074 Old Volcano Rd. , in Volcano Village 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. to provide talks and answer questions about the current eruption.
The return of After Dark …near the park at the Volcano Art Center
Find you park rangers at Mokupāpapa Discovery Center in downtown Hilo, Monday through Saturday, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Rangers provide daily eruption updates, and at 10 a.m. and 2 p.m., give a talk about all five of Hawai‘i Island’s volcanoes – including Kīlauea. Get your NPS Passport Book stamped. Located at 76 Kamehameha Ave. , Hilo Mokupāpapa Discovery Center
Two Park Rangers are stationed at the Grand Naniloa Hotel in downtown Hilo , from 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. , every Sunday and Monday, in the Willie K Crown Room - as long as nothing else is scheduled in the space. The rangers will be doing daily talks at 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. about the eruption. They will show the park film that is normally available to visitors to see at the Kilauea Visitor’s Center at the Summit , Born of Fire, Born in the Sea, every half-hour beginning at 9:30 a.m.
Kona Vet Center visits to Ocean View Community Center are Suspended until further notice. Veterans may call 329-0574 for VA benefit information. ovcahi.org
Tūtū and Me Offers Home Visits to those with keiki zero to five years old: home visits to aid with helpful parenting tips and strategies, educational resources, and a compassionate listening ear. Home visits are free, last 1.5 hours, two to four times a month, for a total of 12 visits, and snacks are provided. For info and to register, call Linda Bong 464-9634.
St. Jude's Episcopal Church Calls For More Volunteers for the Saturday community outreach. Especially needed are cooks for the soup served to those in need, and organizers for the hot showers. "Volunteering for St. Jude's Saturday Shower and Soup ministry is an opportunity to serve God in a powerful way," states St. Jude's April newsletter. Volunteer by contacting Dave Breskin at 319-8333.Volcano Forest Runs Registration Open through Friday, August 17, at 6 p.m. Half marathon $85, 10K $45, 5K $30. Registration increases August 1: half marathon to $95, 10K to $55, and 5K to $35. Race is run from Cooper Center on Wright Road in Volcano Village on Saturday, August 18.
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